Property Lines

1st Quarter Trend Report

2010-06-15T22:53:00.000-04:00

Region #1 - Baldwin, Freeport, Hempstead, Roosevelt & Uniondale

SALES ACTIVITY

During the 1st quarter of 2010, we saw the number of home sales in the area decline by 48 percent to 152 units, from the 225 homes sales sold during the prior quarter. The number of home sales was greater in the 1st quarter 2010 as compared to the same period last year. Sales spiked during the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter of 2009 as a result of the housing tax credit that was introduced by the federal government. The tax credit was set to expire in November-2009 before it was extended to April-2010 and as such, we expect to see strong numbers again in the 2nd quarter.

PRICING

The median home prices in the region continues to decline after a period of some stability. The median sales price during the first quarter 2010 is $233,000, down 11.39 percent from the prior quarter and down 8.46 percent from the same period last year. Like the sales activity report, it appears that housing prices in the region showed a modest gain during the period of time when the housing tax credit was available to the consumer (prior to the extension).

LISTING INVENTORY

The number of homes listed for sale continues to increase putting further downward pressure on the market. In all five (5) cities that are part of this analysis, inventory jumped during the 4th-quarter of 2009 and only started to plateau during the latter part of the 1st quarter. Baldwin saw the smallest increase of 125% while Hempstead and Freeport saw listings increase by more than 400 percent.

Nassau County - 1st Quarter 2010 Zone Report

2010-04-21T16:34:00.000-04:00

As part of our on-going research, we look at the markets through the prism of the buyer. As such, we have segmented Nassau County into 11 regions - today, we will look at our first region that includes Baldwin, Freeport, Hempstead, Roosevelt and Uniondale.

The first quarter-2010 saw 152 properties change hands. This was a good period for this region with an increase in sales volume of 24 percent as compared to the same quarter last year and a 153 percent increase as compared to the 1st quarter 2008. Sales activity is down from the prior three quarters in 2009 which is typical for this seasonal housing market. The cold weather and snow proved to be a challenge for the real estate market during Jan, Feb and March-2010. With the extension of the first time home buyers tax credit, look for strong numbers moving forward.

The median sales price has shown continued weakness with a median sales price of $233,420. This is the lowest price point since the survey started and reflects a decline in price of 8 percent as compared to the first quarter-2009 and 34 percent decline as compared to the 1st quarter 2008.

Looking deeper, if you look at the market without distressed sales (short sales & foreclosures), activity drops to a low of 38 units transferred and a median sales price of $317,250. Only 25 percent of the sales that occurred were true "arms length" transactions.

According to the Long Island MLS, there are now more than 500 homes listed for sale in this region of Nassau County, with a median asking price of $319,000. Of these homes listed for sale, more than 60 percent have had a price reduction from their initial listing. The median original listing price was $349,000 and has since declined approx. 10 percent to $315,000. Nearly half of the homes listed for sale are distressed sale (short sales or foreclosures).

Looking at Ronkonkoma

2010-04-06T17:10:00.000-04:00

This morning, we had an opportunity to appraise a property located in Ronkonkoma, and as always, we compile our research and present it here.

Ronkonkoma reached its peak during the 4th-quarter of 2005 when the average high sales price was $393,000. As 2009 ended, the average sales price in Ronkonkoma was $310,000 while the median sales price during 2009 was $311,000 - a decline of 21 percent. This is consistent with many of the surrounding area's of Suffolk County. According to recent data, 11 percent of the homes in this market are in default as of 02/2010.

During the 1st-quarter of 2010, the average sale price had remained level at $311,000 while the median price dropped to $290,000; the drop in the median sales price suggest that there were many more at the lower end of the price range.

Moving forward, we see that the available inventory (homes listed for-sale) is declining which is reducing the downward pressure in pricing.

As you can see, the median listing price is beginning to move upward while the number of homes listed for sale remains relatively flat. The Ronkonkoma market should have a stronger than average 2nd-qtr, bolstered by the first time home buyers tax credit.

69% of Reviews Completed Show Negligence

2010-04-06T16:40:00.000-04:00

A large part of our business is to complete valuation reviews that were originally developed from 2005 - 2008. During the month of March, we completed 32 appraisal reviews and found that 69 percent of these appraisal had misrepresented the value by 10 percent or more.

The most common occurrence involved the appraiser (a supposed unbiased third party to the transaction) selecting comparable sales that were not suitable for the assignment. In many cases, the appraiser chose to utilize sales data from a superior area and ignoring the sales located on the subjects street in an effort to support their opinion of value. This occurred in 44 percent of the appraisal we review. The next most common occurrence was the appraiser not reporting the subjects listing history. For instance, one property was listed for sale asking $429,000 yet the appraised value was $500,000.

Among our observations, we noted that several appraisers did not report the true condition of the subject property. In these cases, the appraiser reported that the subject was maintained in "good" condition yet their MLS listings state that the property "needs work" or "needs TLC".

While I do not believe that the appraisal industry was totally at fault for their actions, it is apparent that many appraisers were part of the problem.

Breaking down the market in Bethpage, NY 11714

2010-03-26T16:40:00.000-04:00

Looking at the Bethpage market, we see an area that was hit hard by the current credit crisis but appears to be holding its own now. The high water market occurred during the 3rd-qtr-2007 when the average sales price was $487,000. Today, the median sales price in Bethpage is at $378,000, a decline of 22.3 percent.

Since the same period last year, the numbers look very similar. The median sales price during the 1st-qtr-2009 was $377,500 nearly identical to today levels. Home sale in the 1st-qtr-2009 was 20 while this year we have seen 17 sales with 4 days to go in the month.

Currently, there are 48 homes available for-sale with a median listing price of $443,000, down from their original price of $459,000. As seen on the chart below, the inventory of homes listed for sale is declining which should help to stabilize pricing.

Breaking down the market in Valley Stream NY, 11580

2010-03-25T17:22:00.000-04:00

During the 1st-QTR-2009, there were 53 transactions (homes sold) with a median sales price of $348,740. Compared to this year, the number of transactions increased 17 percent to 62 transactions while the median sales price declined slightly to $345,000.

Currently, the median listing price in Valley Stream is $399,000 which is down 20 percent from the height of $500,000 reached during the 1st-QTR-2008. Currently, the most expensive listing in Valley Stream is tagged at $1,100,000 while the least expensive listing is priced at $159,900. This week, 16 more homes were added onto the market bringing the total number of homes available for-sale to 330 homes.

In looking at the Valley Stream market place, it is striking to see the number of homes coming onto the market. As seen on the chart below, the number of homes listed for sale increased dramatically since the beginning of 2010. With so much inventory available, it is reasonable to believe that it will have an adverse affect on pricing.

Breaking down the market in Merrick, NY 11566

2010-03-25T17:01:00.002-04:00

This week, I had the opportunity to appraise a home in Merrick NY; as always, I compete an extensive review of not only the current market conditions but also of past performance. The results of this analysis are presented below.

The median sales price in Merrick during the 1st-QTR-2010 is $449,995 which is down slightly (1.6 percent) as compared to the same period last year when the median sales price was $457,500. The number of sales that occurred in both the 1st-QTR-2009 and the 1st-QTR-2010 is the same with 42 transactions. The median listing price in Merrick as of 03/25/2010 is $579,000. Currently, there are 188 homes listed for-sale with 8 new listing coming onto the market this week. Digging deeper, the variance between the listing price and the sales price is in the range of 4 ~ 5 percent which is consistent with the local market area.

The most expensive listing in Merrick is priced at $2,199,999 while the least expensive listing is at $329,000. There are more homes listed for sale in the bottom two quartiles than there are in the upper-two quartiles.

As seen on the chart below, inventory (homes listed for sale) and the median price of these homes are both on a downward trend. This trend line is consistent with competing neighborhoods to Merrick.